Correction in Uncertainty Intervals for Cumulative COVID-19 Death Forecasts in Europe

SEATTLE, April 8, 2020 /PRNewswire/ -- Today, Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington released the following statement:

https://mma.prnewswire.com/media/1141750/IHME_Logo.jpg [https://mma.prnewswire.com/media/1141750/IHME_Logo.jpg]

An unintentional upload error to our data visualization tool has resulted in IHME issuing incorrect ranges of cumulative deaths in Europe related to COVID-19 in an April 7 press release and on its website. Specifically, the error was associated with the range of possible numbers of cumulative deaths over the course of the pandemic - from the Institute's lowest expected number of cumulative deaths, the "mean" or likely number of potential deaths, and the highest number of cumulative deaths. The figures in the visualization for the range of daily deaths, hospitalizations, ICU bed-days and ventilator need are correct. IHME regrets the data upload error.

The projected deaths below provide the correct ranges. IHME will continue to update hospital usage, ventilator usage and projected deaths on a daily basis.

Upcoming forecasts will reflect our corrected approach. Please visit healthdata.org for information.




Location Mean Lower Upper

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Austria 385 238 770

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Belgium 3546 2024 6232

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Bulgaria 303 79 1146

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Croatia 166 49 854

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Cyprus 54 16 131

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Czechia 411 120 1704

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Denmark 529 242 1279

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Estonia 484 51 2071

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Finland 225 56 721

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France 15058 9401 27727

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Germany 8802 2255 23727

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Greece 457 155 1141

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Hungary 477 104 1686

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Ireland 401 208 626

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Italy 20300 18531 22824

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Latvia 125 6 858

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Lithuania 104 27 445

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Luxembourg 69 41 191

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Malta 19 1 112

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Netherlands 5808 2358 19173

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Norway 669 164 1104

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Poland 1953 392 6504

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Portugal 471 348 765

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Romania 804 267 2541

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Slovakia 251 13 2015

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Slovenia 104 43 424

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Spain 19209 14605 30616

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Sweden 4182 801 4724

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United Kingdom 66314 14573 219211

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Contact: media@healthdata.org [mailto:media@healthdata.org] For Italy: Gianluca Giansante, Gianluca.giansante@cominandpartners.com [mailto:Gianluca.giansante@cominandpartners.com], +39 3409017753 Orsola Randi, orsola.randi@cominandpartners.com [mailto:orsola.randi@cominandpartners.com], +39 3393273672 For Spain: Andrea Joseph, andreamarianajoseph1@gmail.com [mailto:andreamarianajoseph1@gmail.com], +54 91159790368 For UK and other European nations: Oliver Courtney, oliver.courtney@digacommunications.com [mailto:oliver.courtney@digacommunications.com], +44 7815731889 Jon Date, jon.date@digacommunications.com [mailto:jon.date@digacommunications.com], +44 7533011983

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Web site: http://healthdata.org//

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